Impact of CoViD-19 vaccination in Canada on Cases, deaths, hospitalizations, ICU admissions.
Looking at up-to-date data provided in Public Health Agency of Canada’s published reports on the Covid-19 situation in Canada as of November 20, 2022.
The Canadian Covid-19 vaccination campaign began on December 14, 2020 and according to the Canadian product monographs the covid-19 vaccines are indicated for the prevention of Covid-19 (the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2).
From Moderna Spikevax’s Canadian product monograph which can be viewed here:
From Pfizer’s Canadian product monograph which can be seen here:
This establishes that the Covid-19 vaccines are used for the prevention of Covid-19 disease. So far so good.
The Canada.ca Health Infobase reports that , 83.1% of the Canadian population has received at least one dose of a Safe and Effective™ Covid-19 vaccine as of November 6, 2022. According to Statistics Canada’s Population Clock the Canadian population is currently at 39,162,937 people. 83.1% of 39,162,937 gives us 32,544,400 individuals who received at least one dose of a Safe and Effective™ Covid-19 vaccine.
With many Canadians having received 3 and 4 doses, About half the population has received a 3rd dose (first booster). The next graph does give a good sense of vaccine uptake in Canada although there is a weird anomaly in July 2022 where it appears that about 8,000,000 individuals who had previously completed their primary series of 2 doses become less vaccinated… I am proceeding as tho the rest of the data around the anomaly is correct.
We also see that some of the population have received 5 or more doses:
With such high vaccination rates in the Canadian population, with 83% having been vaccinated with a Safe and Effective™ vaccine for the prevention of Covid-19 and promoted as being 95% effective in all the literature (see product monographs, above), we should expect to see an overall reduction of Covid-19 in the population correlating with vaccine uptake.
How much reduction in Covid-19 would be reasonable to expect?
95% (effective) and gives us 76%. This means that Based on the promoted vaccine efficacy of 95%, in an 80% vaccinated population one could reasonably expect to see a 76% drop in Covid-19 cases in the vaccinated population with a correlated drop in Covid hospitalizations and Covid deaths as well as transmissions (people not getting covid-19 won’t transmit Covid-19) as a result of the Covid-19 vaccination campaign. Allowing for variant mutations affecting the efficacy, and the 16.9% of the population that remains unvaccinated, a 50% drop in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths reported would be evidence of the Covid-19 vaccines being Safe and Effective™.
Looking at the Government of Canada’s Epidemiology Update published by PHAC (Canada’s Public Health Agency) we’ll see the drop in Covid-19 cases following Safe and Effective™ Covid-19 vaccination. As we saw in the above Vaccine Coverage graphs, the majority of the population in Canada became vaccinated in July 2021.
Let’s look at the effect of vaccination on Covid-19 cases (which Canada admits to be under-estimated).
Well… That’s not the 50-76% decrease I was expecting… Covid-19 cases didn’t decrease did they? If we compare the Sept.2020-Feb.2021 wave (before and just after the start of vaccination) to the wave hitting Sept.2021-Feb.2022 we see that the latter actually begins in July 2021 and persists until June 2022, a whole year, with the peak of the Dec.2021/Jan.2022 wave being literally off the chart!
I also notice baselines only briefly returning to pre-vaccination levels in July 2021, before the year long surge, July 2021 is when the majority of the Canadian population was becoming vaccinated to prevent Covid-19. The remainder of the post-vaccination timeline shows Covid-19 baseline level of cases are higher than the highest numbers of cases recorded in the first Covid-19 wave in March of 2020, for which the entire country was locked down in a state of emergency and we had case numbers and death tolls reported hourly.
Despite seeing no reduction in Covid case numbers, Canada’s November.15.2022 Epidemiology Update says that the vaccines are very effective at preventing severe illness, hospitalisation and death:
Well that’s hopeful.
So let’s take a look at the Canada’s most recent published data, starting with the Covid-19 deaths. These are taken from the same Epidemiology Report:
Do you see a clear reduction? I don’t… Especially confounding is after July 2021 when vaccination was available for the younger aged adult population and second doses started, it looks like Covid-19 baseline numbers of deaths increased, and just like we saw in the cases numbers, after July 2021 the baseline never returns to the pre-vaccination baseline.
So maybe Covid deaths haven’t been decreased but severe disease sequelae has, as Canada says that Covid-19 vaccinated are less likely to be hospitalized and/or die. Case severity data has not been published (that I know of) but hospitalization statistics would be a logical indicator of reduced disease severity as mild Covid cases would be unlikely to require hospitalization.
Looks like Covid-19 hospitalizations increase following the Safe and Effective™ covid-19 vaccine rollout. Getting really bad in 2022. hmmm.
Ok. So hospitalizations increased after Covid-19 vaccination. But these couldn’t be severe cases, because Canada tells us that Covid-19 vaccines are Effective™ at preventing severe disease. We’ll see that the stats for Covid-19 patients hospitalized in ICU is lower following the start of vaccination:
Looks like covid-19 ICU admissions actually increased following the Covid-19 vaccines and especially after July 2021 where we see these numbers never returning to pre-vaccination baseline levels.
Here I want readers to note the ICU numbers in 2020 remembering that we were told that Covid-19 patients (especially the unvaccinated) were ‘clogging up the ICUs’. It is noteworthy that pre-vaccination (throughout 2020) the number of Covid-19 patients admitted to ICU never went above 1000 at any one time, and these statistics are for all ICU admissions in all hospitals all across Canada. If 1000 patients amongst 13 provinces/territories across all of Canada qualifies as ‘clogging up the ICUs’ there’s something very wrong with Canada’s hospitals and they are grossly inadequate in their ability to serve the population, which I don’t believe is true. Hospitals are for the most part underfunded, yes, but not inadequate.
It would appear that prior to the vaccine rollout the ICUs were not clogged with Covid-19 patients at all, but the mythology that they were drove 83.1% of the population to take at least one dose of the Safe and Effective™ Covid-19 vaccines, that mythology fuelled the segregation of the unvaccinated from society, they were unable to enter stores, attend outdoor events, go to the library or gym, and even be fired from their employment. We were told that it was for the greater good, but do the statistics indicate the benefit of such extreme measures? I don’t see it but maybe you do.
One last statistic I want to highlight, which could serve as an indicator Covid-19 disease severity being reduced due to the Safe and Effective™ Covid-19 vaccines, and that is the recorded use of ventilators… Logically, less severe disease would result in less Covid-19 patients being put on ventilators after vaccination, right?
hmmm…
So use of mechanical ventilation increased after the vaccine rollout… along with cases, hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and deaths… never returning to the pre-vaccination baseline levels.
But, the Covid-19 vaccines are Safe and Effective™.
